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The National Economy <br />The recovery continues despite uncertainty born from the looming fiscal cliff and weak global conditions. The US <br />unemployment rate edged down to 7.7 percent in November, a level that it hasn't reached since December 2008. <br />Based on more complete source data, the "third" Third quarter 2012 Real GDP was revised upward from 2.0 to 3.1 <br />percent, largely due to increased consumer spending, federal government spending and larger inventory levels than <br />previously reported. <br />Personal income increased in November while consumers seem to anticipate better times ahead. Personal income <br />and disposable personal income growth each rose by 0.6 percent in November. Pending home sales a forward <br />looking real estate market index, rose to its highest level in five years. Retail sales for November may reflect a better <br />holiday shopping season this year. Nonstore retailer sales were up 11.1 percent from November 2011. A key driver <br />of this spending, consumer confidence rose again in November and is now at its highest level in more than four <br />and a half years. October foreign trade data indicates positive changes. The goods deficit with China increased from <br />$29.1 billion in September to $29.5 billion with much of the increase attributable to computers and toys, games, and <br />sporting goods. <br />Business fixed investment (BFI) was revised downward for the third quarter 2012, likely reflecting investor reluctance <br />to spend on capital. During the early stages of the last three recoveries BFI performed similarly, spending at around <br />10 percent of GDP. Corporate profits grew $45.7 billion in the third quarter, compared to an increase of $21.8 <br />billion in the second quarter. At $1.5 trillion, after tax corporate profits were 45 percent higher than they were in <br />the fourth quarter of 2007, before the last recession. Industrial production increased 1.1 percent in November after <br />having fallen 0.7 percent in October. The industrial sector may be quietly recovering as the index trails the high from <br />December, 2007 by only 3.2 percent. <br />NC Unemployment Rate <br />0 <br />n 10.5% <br />E <br />10.0% <br />0 9.5% <br />n 9.0% <br />`o <br />"c 8.5% <br />n B.0% <br />hti y1 h h 1 1 % h % h 4 Mti ,y'L <br />Source: Local Area UnemploymenetStatistics, Seasonally Adjusted <br />Economic Indicators <br />NC Total Employment <br />4,020 <br />4,000 <br />3,980 <br />0 3,960 <br />3,940 <br />3,920 <br />3,900 <br />1 ti� hti 1ti ,titi ,ti S titi �ti titi hti titi �hti <br />l a <br />Source: Current Employment Statistics <br />NC Residential Building Permits <br />6,000 <br />5,000 <br />4,000 <br />i 3,000 <br />2,000 <br />c <br />� 1,000 <br />a <br />NC HOWL Advertised Vacancies <br />145,000 <br />140,000 <br />135,000 <br />m 130,000 <br />j 125,000 <br />° 120,000 <br />Y 115,000 <br />110,000 <br />105,000 <br />100,000 <br />Source: The Conference Board, Help Wanted Online, Seasonally Adjusted <br />NC Manufacturing Weekly Hours <br />41.5 <br />41.0 <br />40.5 <br />'o <br />s 40.0 <br />39.5 <br />39.0 <br />S� ti� titi h 1 titi titi titi Yti hti 1ti titi h <br />� ° a Oy c la ¢ n �¢ pQ � 5¢ c �� P o 4 1 dc 4 11 <br />Source: Current Employment Statistics <br />0 <br />`v 4.5 <br />4.0 <br />° 3.5 <br />n 3.0 <br />0 2.5 <br />2.0 <br />c 1.5 <br />1.0 <br />"c 0.5 <br />0.0 <br />US Real Gross Domestic Product <br />Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis <br />If you would like to be added to the distribution list, please contact Tim Aylor at ( timothy.aylor @nccommerce.com) <br />Previous Monthly Overviews are available on Commerce's website by clicking here <br />Labor & Economic Analysis Division; DecemkRr ft W6 1 <br />1 -3 Page 275 <br />1 Y 1 1 h�' h h ti 1 S 1 S ;b <br />ti 1 h S h 1 ti 1 b 1 ti S ;1 <br />y ti. v�yti. oyti. ol ti. OM1ti, <br />