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North Carolina: Where Is the Job Growth? May 26, 2011 WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC ECONOMICS GROUP On a regional basis, job growth has been concentrated in the Raleigh metropolitan area and to a lesser extent the Charlotte metropolitan area. The employment growth in these areas is directly related to the industries located in these areas. For example, the Raleigh area is experiencing the fastest recovery in its labor market, as Raleigh has a high concentration of key growth industries such as healthcare and professional and technical service employment. In contrast, the Greensboro area continues to lag the rest of the state in relative job growth in part because of the industry mix of the area. The map below presents the unemployment rate by county. The counties that continue to experience persistently high unemployment are those areas that tend to be in rural areas of the state. Soume: US Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Given the employment trends at the national level, we have identified a few key high growth industries that include: finance & insurance, professional & technical services, accommodation & food services, services other than public administration and healthcare & social assistance.3 These national high growth industries have been adding jobs over the past two decades to their already large employment bases. The fact that there are a few key growth industries at the national level, the next logical question is which regions within the state of North Carolina are at a competitive advantage to attract employers in these industries. Using a regional shift -share analysis, we can determine which metropolitan areas within the state have a competitive advantage in attracting employment for certain industries. Our results indicate that every major metropolitan area within the state has a competitive Our results advantage in attracting at least some of these key high growth industries.4 This is good news for indicate that every the longer -term job picture for these areas. However, the one factor that could prevent these areas major from experiencing faster job growth in the future is if the skill set of the workforce fails to match metropolitan area those that are in demand by these industries. If this situation occurs, job growth will not within the state has materialize. a competitive advantagein As can be seen from the table below, the Charlotte metropolitan area will likely have the most attracting at least diverse employment base going forward based on its competitive advantage in attracting some of these key employment in many industries. The Asheville and Greensboro metro areas will likely have the high growth least diverse employment growth going forward based on the employment trends of the past industries. 3 Vitner, M., Brown, M.A., Watt, S. (2o11). Employment Dynamics and State Competitiveness. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC. 4 It should be noted that areas that have experienced population growth will tend to show a competitive advantage for several industries. Thus, in some cases, the industry competitive advantage is a result of population growth rather than the ability of an area to attract a specific industry. 3 Attachment number 1 1 -1 Page 610 _ u.g %to t3.o% Less than 9.o% _ -.5% to 11.5%