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North Carolina: Where Is the Job Growth? <br />May 26, 2011 <br />Prof. & Bus. Svcs. <br />Information <br />Government <br />Goods Producing <br />Financial Activities <br />Trade, Trans. & Utilities <br />Educ. & Health Svcs. <br />Leisure and Hospitality <br />Other Services <br />Total Nonfarm <br />Asheville <br />• Asheville's unemployment rate remains <br />stubbornly elevated at eight percent, as <br />individuals have been gradually returning to the <br />labor force. <br />• Employment growth in the area has been <br />concentrated in other services, leisure and <br />hospitality, education and health services, trade <br />and transportation and utilities industries. The <br />most substantial job growth can be tied to the <br />rebound in the local tourism industry as can be <br />seen from the improvements in other services <br />and leisure and hospitality. <br />• Bucking the national trend, professional and <br />business service employment has declined since <br />last year. The below- average educational <br />attainment of the population makes the area <br />less attractive to professional service- related <br />businesses. <br />• Asheville's housing market continues to show <br />signs of stabilizing. While new permits for <br />single - family homes have been mostly flat, the <br />multi - family market is showing signs of a <br />recovery. Home prices remain depressed as <br />existing home sales remain weak which in turn <br />will delay stability in home prices. <br />• Another potential headwind for the Asheville <br />housing market is the slowdown in the rate of <br />population growth. <br />• Our outlook for the Asheville area is a slow pace <br />of job growth, with most of the economic growth <br />stemming from the local, cyclical, tourism <br />industry. <br />Asheville MSA Population Growth <br />Average by Decade, In Thousands <br />1980s 1990s 2000s 2010 <br />7 <br />6 <br />5 <br />4 <br />3 <br />2 <br />1 <br />0 <br />WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC <br />ECONOMICS GROUP <br />Asheville MSA Employment by Industry <br />Year - over -Year Percent Change, 3 -Month Moving Average <br />-4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% <br />Asheville MSA Employment Cycles <br />Percent Change from Cycle Peak <br />12.0% <br />10.0% <br />8.0% <br />6.0% <br />4.0% <br />2.0% <br />0.0% <br />-2.0% <br />-4.0% <br />-6.0% <br />-8.0% <br />12.0% <br />10.0% <br />8.0% <br />6.0% <br />4.0% <br />2.0% <br />0.0% <br />-2.0% <br />-4.0% <br />-6.0% <br />-8.0% <br />0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 <br />Asheville MSA Housing Permits <br />Thousands of Permits, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate <br />6 6 <br />5 <br />4 <br />3 <br />2 <br />1 <br />5 <br />4 <br />3 <br />2 <br />1 <br />0 <br />6 <br />Attachment number 1 <br />1 -1 Page 613 <br />0 i I I I I I I I I 1 <br />90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 <br />Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor <br />and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC <br />