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North Carolina: Where Is the Job Growth? <br />May 26, 2011 <br />Greensboro MSA Employment by Industry <br />Year - over -Year Percent Change, 3 -Month Moving Average <br />Greensboro <br />• The severity of the job losses in the Greensboro <br />area become apparent when compared to the <br />last two recessions (middle graph). Given the <br />dramatic employment declines during the <br />recession, it will take some time before the area <br />reaches its pre- recession employment levels. <br />• The unemployment rate remains elevated at <br />10.3 percent. Like many other parts of the state, <br />the professional and business services as well as <br />hospitality industries are leading job growth in <br />the region. Manufacturing job growth is <br />returning; however, the pace of growth will <br />remain subdued. <br />• Budget cutbacks at the state and local level have <br />adversely affected government and education <br />sector employment. <br />• Greensboro's housing market remains weak. <br />The sluggish job growth has held back sales of <br />existing homes, while single - family housing <br />permits continue to decline. Some improvement <br />in multi - family permits likely reflects the higher <br />demand for apartment rentals. Prices in the <br />area are showing some signs of stabilizing as <br />price declines have slowed. <br />• The Greensboro area will continue to lag the <br />rest of the state in employment growth as the <br />area struggles to fill the void left by permanent <br />manufacturing job losses. The dependence on <br />manufacturing will also hold back personal <br />income growth going forward. <br />12 <br />Greensboro MSA Population Growth <br />Average by Decade, In Thousands <br />9 <br />6 <br />3 <br />a <br />1980s 1990s 2000s 2010 <br />Government <br />Educ. & Health Svcs. <br />Financial Activities <br />Information <br />Other Services <br />Goods Producing <br />Trade, Trans. & Utilities <br />Leisure and Hospitality <br />Prof. & Bus. Svcs. <br />Total Nonfarm <br />WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC <br />ECONOMICS GROUP <br />March 2011 <br />-4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% <br />Greensboro MSA Employment Cycles <br />Percent Change from Cycle Peak <br />8.0% <br />6.0% <br />4.0% <br />2.0% <br />0.0% <br />-2.0% <br />-4.0% <br />-6.0% <br />-8.0% <br />-10.0% <br />8.0% <br />6.0% <br />4.0% <br />2.0% <br />0.0% <br />-2.0% <br />-4.0% <br />-6.0% <br />-8.0% <br />-10.0% <br />0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 <br />8 <br />7 <br />Greensboro MSA Housing Permits <br />Thousands of Permits, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate <br />Single- Family, 12 -Month Mov. Avg.: Mar @ 1,188 <br />— Multi- Family, 12 -Month Mov. Avg.: Mar @ 959 <br />- Single - Family: Mar @ 1,404 <br />12 <br />6 <br />5 <br />9 <br />4 <br />3 <br />6 2 I � 1 6 <br />1 <br />3 <br />0 <br />90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 <br />0 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor, <br />and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC <br />8 <br />7 <br />6 <br />5 <br />4 <br />3 <br />2 <br />1 <br />0 <br />9 <br />Attachment number 1 <br />1 -1 Page 616 <br />