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Draft 1.1 -- Not for Distribution or Circulation A Simple Leakage Analysis Leakage analysis identifies all those sectors in the economy where a community is unnecessarily importing goods and services. Every unnecessary import represents a loss of dollars and a loss of the "multiplier" impacts those dollars could have locally. It also represents a loss of other documented benefits local business brings, like knowledge, skills, tax payments, charitable giving, revitalized downtowns, tourists, stronger civil society, and more political participation. Two tools can help to measure dollar leakages. One is the "jobs leakage calculator" created by the author for the Business Alliance for Local Living Economies (BALLE) ( www.livingeconomies.org ). The calculator basically constructs an employment profile for a self - reliant United States by adjusting each NAICS sector's actual employment by the nation's trade balance in that sector. It then creates a jobs composite of a self - reliant Cabarrus by shrinking the jobs composite of a self - reliant United States down to the town's population. The actual employment in Cabarrus in each sector is compared with the expected employment with self - reliance. The year of the data is 2009. The calculator shows that 28,292 new jobs are possible in Cabarrus based just on local demand, and they would pay $1.2 billion in additional annual wages. Capturing 25% of these jobs would mean about 7,073 new jobs. It's worth noting that this analysis contains a significant conservatism. In any category where Cabarrus is deemed 100% self - reliant, no additional jobs from import substitution are assumed possible. In fact, some of those "self- reliance" jobs in fact are probably oriented to exports, which means there are still opportunities for further job creation through import substitution. Levels of self - reliance greater than 100% mark export industries. Chart 8 shows the top 40 export industries in Cabarrus. Among the things that the data show are: • The top industry is — unsurprisingly — "other spectator sports," which refers to NASCAR. Employment in this sector is 85 times the national average! • The county remains a textile manufacturing center, as it has been historically. Other manufacturing sectors that are unusually large are dry goods, motor vehicle parts, furniture, metal containers, processed poultry, wood products, signs, coffee, and bricks. • The county has a thriving granite mining industry. • The manufacturing businesses support a number of linked professional services like packaging, industrial site construction, cafeterias, trucking, and rail services. MO. Attachment number 1 1 -4 Page 320